Analytical Framework

The Analytical Framework sets out the thinking, methodology and evidence base that underpin ACTis. It draws primarily on the findings and analysis of South Africa’s Zondo Commission, informed by relevant international approaches to measuring corruption and state capture, while developing a methodology specifically suited to the South African context. ACTis aims to generate credible, institution-level evidence on risks of corruption and state capture, identify emerging patterns and networks, and translate findings into practical recommendations that enable those with the authority to act to intervene earlier. The methodology combines publicly available data from credible sources with a custom-built AI-assisted research tool and human analysis. Data is assessed against a structured set of individual and composite indicators, with findings synthesised into reports that identify risks, explain their significance and highlight potential points for intervention. ACTis does not seek to prove corruption or state capture conclusively; rather, it provides evidence-based risk indications to support investigation, accountability and timely action.

The Flag Methodology explains how ACTis converts publicly available information into structured indicators of corruption and state-capture risk. It provides the detailed indicators, thresholds and rules used to move from published evidence to signs, indicators and ultimately flags. In brief, raw data from credible government, legal, parliamentary, civil society and media sources is processed through the ACTis AI-assisted system, which identifies and tags relevant “signs” in the underlying text. Human analysts then verify the sources and assess whether the evidence meets the criteria for individual indicators. These binary indicators are aggregated according to defined thresholds and rules to determine whether one of ACTis’ nine composite indicators, or “flags”, should be raised. A raised flag indicates that a particular pattern associated with corruption or state capture may be present and warrants further investigation or action.